000 AXNT20 KNHC 260514 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N17W 2N27W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-40W AND FROM THE AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD HIGH AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO OVER THE E US CONTINUING TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER MEXICO AND INTO THE W GULF W OF 90W...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EXTREME S FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 84W. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF WITH A 1023 MB HIGH ALONG THE ALABAMA/ MISSISSIPPI COAST. CARIBBEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER JAMAICA CONTINUING SW TO OFF THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 13N82W BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 16N77W TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA NEAR 20N72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA SW UPPER FLOW AND ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 28N W OF 60W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE AREA ALONG 31N FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO THE NE GEORGIA COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE W ATLC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS RETREATING SOUTHWARD EXTENDING FROM 26N69W SW ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMAICA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR REMAIN W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N58W SSW ALONG 23N63W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N FROM 68W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 22N68W TO 25N49W. GENERALLY UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BETWEEN 10N-27N WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NE ATLC NEAR 30N26W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH WSW OF THE AZORES. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM OVER AFRICA ALONG 6W/7W TO 35W AND A SECOND ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N48W. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. $$ PAW