000 AXNT20 KNHC 240459 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 3N19W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF THE AXIS TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 3W-21W WITH SMALL SCATTERED CLUSTERS WITHIN 200/250 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NARROW AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE W GULF TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 90W...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR TO THAT AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC COVERS THE GULF USHERING IN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FAR E GULF FROM 25N-28W E OF 85W. CARIBBEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N82W CONTINUING S OVER HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE UPPER LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 20N FROM 82W-85W WITH A LARGER AREA WITHIN 150 NM OF FROM 16N82W ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 20N76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC GIVING THE AREA SW UPPER FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH BERMUDA SW TO A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 26N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 21N82W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR ARE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N62W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE 26N54W 24N66W TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 20N73W. UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BETWEEN 10N-30N WITH AN UPPER TROUGH JUST DIPPING OVER THE NE ATLC FROM 25W-42W. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DO NOT ENTER THE REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM OVER AFRICA ALONG 8W/9W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA. AS A RESULT...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ESPECIALLY E OF 50W. $$ PAW