000
AXNT20 KNHC 220524
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W EQ30W EQ50W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 18W-32W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
3N-5N BETWEEN 39W-42W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE TO E WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.  SLIGHTLY STRONGER...25 KT WINDS...ARE REPORTED OVER THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER FLORIDA AND THE ERN GULF OF 
MEXICO E OF 85W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE NW COAST 
OF CUBA WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 23N84W.  SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS ARE 
OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N AND W OF 96W.  
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... NWLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICAN COASTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA... 
AND W CUBA.       

CARIBBEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS FROM HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA ALONG 
20N70W 18N79W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND WITHIN 
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO 
INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE MOVING W WITH THE TRADES.  
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 
70W ALSO MOVING W WITH THE TRADES.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 80W.  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER 
HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA.  EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SHOWERS 
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT TRADEWIND SHOWERS 
TO CONTINUE.  THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
ATLANTIC...
20-30 KT ELY FLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE 
BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA COAST.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 
31N53W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT.  A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SE OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 
34N55W 32N60W 31N70W AND IS ABOUT TO MERGE WITH THE ABOVE 
MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT.  A STRONG 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH IS 
CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 43N20W.  A RELATIVELY 
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 20W-50W 
PRODUCING STRONGER THAN NORMAL ENE SURFACE FLOW WITH BROKEN 
LOW CLOUDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 
50W-80W.  A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E 
OF 50W WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 30W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONTS TO 
MERGE AND PRODUCE SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
20N-28N BETWEEN 50W-80W...ESPECIALLY N OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS 
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA