000
AXNT20 KNHC 211110
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 1N15W 1N30W EQ40W 2S50W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N 
BETWEEN 9W-13W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-2N 
BETWEEN 13W-28W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-5N BETWEEN 28W-35W.  WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 35W-41W.    

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT SE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.  SLIGHTLY STRONGER...25 KT WINDS...ARE REPORTED OVER THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER FLORIDA AND THE ERN GULF OF 
MEXICO E OF 85W.  SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER TEXAS AND THE NW 
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N AND W OF 93W.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NWLY 
FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE NRN GULF N OF 24N MOVING E.  
EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TEXAS 
AND NE MEXICAN COASTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT 
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
TODAY.       

CARIBBEAN...
THE REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA ALONG 20N70W 18N79W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS...OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE MOVING W 
WITH THE TRADES.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD AND 
WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 70W ALSO MOVING W WITH THE TRADES.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER 
HISPANIOLA.  EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS WITH TRADEWIND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.  AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE W CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.
 
ATLANTIC...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 31N55W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 
20N70W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.  A STRONG 1035 MB SURFACE 
HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 45N23W.  A 
RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 
20W-50W PRODUCING STRONGER THAN NORMAL NE TO E SURFACE FLOW WITH 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE 
EQUATOR AND E OF 40W WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 30W.  EXPECT THE 
FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT 
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA