000 AXNT20 KNHC 200529 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N15W 2N30W 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 18W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 28W-34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 38W-40W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 47W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE NRN GULF N OF 24N MOVING E. EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICAN COASTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE EXPERIENCED THROUGHOUT THE GULF. CARIBBEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA ALONG 20N70W 18N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO INLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS...OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS MOVING W WITH THE TRADES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS E OF 70W ALSO MOVING W WITH THE TRADES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT OVER HISPANIOLA...NRN SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TRADEWIND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC... A 1033 MB HIGH N OF BERMUDA NEAR 36N65W IS PRODUCING ELY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. RESIDUAL BANDS OF BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E FROM 31N54W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A VERY STRONG 1044 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 46N28W. A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 20W-50W PRODUCING STRONGER THAN NORMAL NE TO E SURFACE FLOW WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-60W. A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE EQUATOR AND E OF 45W WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 35W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ FORMOSA