000 AXNT20 KNHC 191757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 3N30W EQ38W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-6N BETWEEN 13W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27N-36W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FIRING UP ALONG THE NE BRAZIL COAST FROM 3S-EQ W OF 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE SW PORTION OF A 1033 MB HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC IS DOMINATING THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 15-25 KT E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND MODERATE E/SELY WIND WAVES. SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN W OF 85W. CLEAR SKIES EXIST E OF 85W/W OF FLORIDA WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. ALOFT...FLOW IS GENERALLY WNW TO NW AHEAD OF UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING N THROUGH WRN TEXAS. THIS IS ADVECTING PATCHES OF UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE NW GULF...NW OF A TAMPICO TO PANAMA CITY FL LINE. DRY MID TO UPPER AIR EXISTS SE OF THAT LINE. SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE AREA WILL KEEP MODERATE TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. CARIBBEAN... TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS IS PRODUCING BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IN THE AREA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DRIVEN BY 15-25 KT NE/E TRADES EXIST ELSEWHERE...WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE FAR NE PORTION N OF 14N E OF 68W. ALOFT...WIDESPREAD WSW/SW FLOW DOMINATES ON THE NW PORTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE BASIN FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA. THIS IS ADVECTING HIGH CLOUDS NE THROUGH THE ERN CARIB AND WINDWARD PASSAGE. MOSTLY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR EXISTS ELSEWHERE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. ATLANTIC... SFC HI PRES AND FRESH NELY WINDS DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N57W AND CONTINUES SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING EXTENDING SSE FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE NEAR THE FRONT...UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS ARE NOTED W OF THE FRONT. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING...S OF A 1046 MB CENTER N OF THE AZORES NEAR 45N29W. THIS IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT STRONG TRADES AND FAIR WEATHER E OF 55W. UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE A MID TO UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE FAR NE PORTION. THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...N OF 26N BETWEEN 16W-23W. GFS SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP FOR THE AREA NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. OTHERWISE STRONG SFC HI PRES RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE ERN AND WRN ATLC AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH'S SUPPORTING A LINGERING FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE FRONTAL TROUGH AS WELL. $$ WILLIS