000
AXNT20 KNHC 181812
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N10W 3W20W EQ30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 4S40W. 
AXIS IS MUCH LESS ACTIVE THAN IT WAS THIS TIME YESTERDAY. 
HOWEVER...ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION REMAIN FROM  
EQ-7N BETWEEN 14W-31W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIRLY GOOD WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC 
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. THERE ARE A FEW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE LOOP CURRENT S OF 27N BETWEEN 
85W-89W. ALSO SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS NOTED IN THE WRN 
GULF AND TX/LA COAST W OF 92W...WITH MOIST SE FLOW. CLEAR SKIES 
ARE THE NORM ELSEWHERE. ALOFT...BROAD WNW TO NW FLOW PERSISTS IN 
WAKE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SSE THROUGH THE EASTERN 
U.S. VERY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF 
ESPECIALLY S OF 26N. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE 
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SLIDES E. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE ERN TIP OF 
CUBA...THROUGH WRN JAMAICA AND INTO THE NW CARIB WATERS TO NEAR 
16N82W. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LIFTED NE OF 
THE AREA. N TO NE WINDS 15-20 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MORE 
TYPICAL...MODERATE TRADES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALOFT...FLOW IS 
MOSTLY SW TO WSW AROUND UPPER TROUGHING N OF THE AREA AND 
RIDGING EXTENDING N THROUGH THE FAR ERN CARIB. VERY DRY MID TO 
UPPER DOMINATES THE FAR NW PORTION. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CARIB E OF 80W...SPREADING NE FROM 
CONVECTION OVER THE EPAC...COLOMBIA...AND WHATS LEFT OF THE 
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME DIFFUSE INTO MON WHILE 
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE FLOW DOMINATES.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SFC HI PRES IS BUILDING INTO THE WRN ATLC BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 
THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N64W AND CONTINUES SW TO THE TURKS 
AND CAICOS. FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING 
EXTENDING SSE FROM ERN CANADA THROUGH THE ERN U.S. IN ADDITION 
TO THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE NEAR THE FRONT...UPPER DIFFLUENT 
FLOW IS SUPPORTING THE MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED 
SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 22N BETWEEN 56W-69W. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF 
THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SFC HIGH PRES 
RIDGING...S OF A 1045 MB CENTER JUST NW OF THE AZORES. THIS IS 
PRODUCING ABUNDANT MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES AND FAIR WEATHER E 
OF 55W. UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE A MID TO 
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR NE PORTION. THIS CONTINUES TO 
PRODUCE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...N 
OF 25N BETWEEN 15W-25W. GFS SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN 
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY WEEK AND PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP FOR 
THE AREA. OTHERWISE SFC HI PRES RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE ERN 
AND WRN ATLC AREA INTO EARLY WEEK...WITH CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THE 
TWO HIGH'S SUPPORTING A LINGERING FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL 
ATLC. 


$$
WILLIS