000 AXNT20 KNHC 150505 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N16W 2N36W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N W OF 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 16W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE E NOW OVER FAR E TEXAS MOVING TOWARD LOUISIANA COVERING THE W GULF N OF 20N W OF 85W ENHANCING THE HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-93W WITH THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE. UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NOW IN THE W ATLC BUT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 85W GIVING THE GULF SW TO W UPPER WINDS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC COVERS THE E GULF E OF 88W. MODERATE TO STRONG S TO SE SURFACE WINDS COVER THE GULF. BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-28N E OF 83W ACROSS FLORIDA WHILE THE SW GULF REMAINS SHOWERS FREE. CARIBBEAN... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO CENTRAL CUBA GIVING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SW TO W UPPER FLOW. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURES IN THE TROPICS ARE GENERATING STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS BRINGING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE ENTIRE AREA. ATLANTIC... UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 76W. BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-31N W OF 74W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 17N FROM 44W-65W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N49W SSW ALONG 25N51W TO 21N56W THEN CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N67W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COVERING THE AREA W OF THE ABOVE FRONT/TROUGH INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. EMBEDDED BENEATH THE UPPER FLOW IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N52W TO 27N57W. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FAR E ATLC COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 28W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING JUST S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N16W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 13N BETWEEN 22W-45W ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS WELL AS MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT. $$ WALLACE