000 AXNT20 KNHC 140500 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N17W 2N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 4W-39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS CLIPPING THE NW GULF N OF 26NW OF 93W ENHANCING THE HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA AND ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF SW UPPER WINDS. THIS ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE S GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COVER THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR E GULF WHERE STRONGER WINDS PREVAIL. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE GULF...HOWEVER LITTLE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES WITH TWO UPPER RIDGES DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. WESTERN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E PACIFIC REGION OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SECOND BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE FAR NE SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE THE W TROPICAL ATLC. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURES IN THE TROPICS ARE GENERATING MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS BRINGING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE ENTIRE AREA. ATLANTIC... UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN AND COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 77W. BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 19N FROM 48W-77W WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N51W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 30N51W CONTINUING S TO 25N55W THEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH S TO TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE FRONT/LOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 34N71W COVERING THE AREA W OF THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SURFACE RIDGE COMBINED WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS ARE LEAVING THE AREA W OF THE FRONT/TROUGH MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE E ATLC COVERS THE AREA N OF 19N E OF 35W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING S TO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N16W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST TO 24N16W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-45W ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH WELL NE OF THE AZORES. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS WELL AS MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC QUIET AGAIN TONIGHT. $$ WALLACE