000 AXNT20 KNHC 112338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAR 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N25W EQ42W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30-50 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 19W-22W...AND NEAR THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MORE OF THE SAME...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA GIVING THE GULF WATERS LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WIND FLOW BETWEEN RIDGING EXTENDING N FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NEW MEXICO IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO MOST OF THE GULF. PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES SE TOWARDS CAPE HATTERAS. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CARIBBEAN... QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS. A SFC TROUGH OVER THE ATLC IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER N COLOMBIA AND ITS PACIFIC COASTLINE THANKS TO A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. A MID/UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN. TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 30 KT JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WESTERN ATLANTIC... THE LOW PRES CENTER THAT WAS E OF THE BAHAMAS YESTERDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OCEAN WHILE A NEW SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 27N65W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONNECTS BOTH LOW PRES SYSTEMS. A SFC TROUGH IS ALSO IN THE AREA...AND EXTENDS FROM 29N63W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS NOW N OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MAINLY E OF THE MAIN LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 35N62W. THE SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE AHEAD OF THE DOMINATING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEEPENING INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NE WHILE THE SECOND ONE WILL DISSIPATE. THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS. EASTERN ATLANTIC... STRONG 1038 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED W OF THE AZORES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SFC PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EWD TOWARDS THE AZORES. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS... STRONG RIDGING ALSO DOMINATES WITH A HIGH CENTER NEAR 22N32W. DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS AIDING IN THE WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER. $$ GR