000 AXNT20 KNHC 052306 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON MAR 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2215 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N21W 2N38W 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 3.5N FROM 13W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 25W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWEEP INTO THE NW ATLC DIPPING S OVER MOST OF THE GULF N OF 23N ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CONTAINED IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. DENSE LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 22N COVERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE S GULF S OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-97W. DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AGAIN REIGNS ACROSS THE GULF SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. MODERATE/STRONG NORTH SURFACE WINDS REMAIN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER LIGHT N TO NE WINDS. CARIBBEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 19N82W CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 16N85W WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND EASTERLY WINDS TO THE E. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICS IS GENERATING STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA E OF THE FRONT. CONFLUENT FLOW IS BUILDING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICS INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W TO NEAR 14N81W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ESPECIALLY E OF 82W CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THAT AREA. ATLANTIC... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 74W WITH THE PRIMARY ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N56W SW TO ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W TO 27N71W. JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT IS N OF LINE FROM OVER FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W NE TO BEYOND 32N55W. A BANK OF DENSE CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES BECOMING BROKEN TO OVERCAST W OF THE PRIMARY FRONT TO A LINE FROM 27N71W TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W. W OF THERE IS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO 80W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 25N58W NE TO BEYOND 32N45W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE REGION S OF 30N BETWEEN 55W-73W LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY E OF A FRONT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 17N43W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC E OF THE UPPER TROUGH ABOVE WITH A PEAK NEAR 24W27W. TROPICAL JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 13N45W ALONG 21N28W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 19N16W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB NEAR 31N31W TO 25N60W. $$ WALLACE