000 AXNT20 KNHC 050604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON MAR 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 12N10W 6N20W 3N30W 2N40W...CURVING TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N13W 2N31W 2N40W 1N50W. A SHIELD OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS SOUTH OF 10N61W 10N50W 16N40W 22N30W BEYOND 24N20W UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA TO THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IS MOVING EASTWARD. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. A WEAK AND NOT WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OVER INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 23N102W. ANOTHER NOT WELL- DEFINED MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING TOWARD THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AWAY FROM THE ADVANCING DEEP LAYER TROUGH. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA TO 22N85W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 15N95W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 15N95W INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 12N62W TO 13N80W. EXTREMELY DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 80W...AND EVEN INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW SKIRTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE EDGES OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT ONLY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS. EASTERLY SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST GENERALLY SOUTH OF 15N...AND SOMETIMES FROM 20 TO 25 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...EAST OF 73W...AND NORTHWEST OF 18N75W 13N81W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 29N68W BEYOND 32N56W TO 33N35W TO 38N20W. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EVENTUALLY REACHES THE CANARY ISLANDS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N26W TO 23N33W TO 14N47W 12N54W 12N62W...EVEN EXTENDING MORE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 13N80W. A SHIELD OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS SOUTH OF 10N61W 10N50W 16N40W 22N30W BEYOND 24N20W UNDER BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N63W TO 28N70W TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE NEAR THIS FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N19W TO 33N21W TO 27N37W 26N58W TO 25N72W. $$ MT