000 AXNT20 KNHC 042319 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN MAR 04 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 7N20W 5N23W 3N35W 1N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 11W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE E US INTO THE NW ATLC DIPPING S OVER THE GULF N OF 26N WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS IN THE W ATLC BECOMING STATIONARY THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 24N80W TO 22N88W THEN S OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT. JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 NM ARE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF A LINE FROM 23N98W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W THAT TRANSPORTING A NARROW BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS N MEXICO AND THE FAR SE GULF STATES INTO THE W ATLC. DRY AIR/ STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE GULF S OF THE JET STREAM. AT HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INCLUDING THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE FINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF WITH GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE BANKED UP OVER THE W GULF AND ALONG THE E SLOPE OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS TOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED THERE. CARIBBEAN... EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT ANTILLES NEAR HISPANIOLA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR HONDURAS AND NE OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. THIS FEATURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ESPECIALLY E OF 80W. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICS IS GENERATING STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...BELOW GALE FORCE. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIVEN BY THESE WINDS ARE MOVING W FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SW ATLC AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL REACH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY STRONG GUSTY N WINDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ATLANTIC... MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT DIPS S OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS IN THE NW ATLC WHILE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPES INTO THE REGION ALONG 32N63W SW TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 24N80W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT IS N OF LINE FROM OVER FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO BEYOND 32N55W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER HISPANIOLA NE TO BEYOND 32N50W COVERING THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATE THE REGION S OF 30N W OF 60W AND S OF 25N FROM 45W-60W LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY E OF A COLD FRONT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS SW ALONG 25N30W 18N43W TO THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N55W UNDERCUTTING THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A PAIR OF 1027 MB OVER THE NE ATLC ALONG 32N35W TO THE COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 23W S OF 21N. TROPICAL JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 KT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. $$ WALLACE