000 AXNT20 KNHC 030539 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT MAR 03 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 4N20W 1N35W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SOUTH OF 3N WEST OF 30W...EXTENDING TO THE BRAZILIAN COAST. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... EXPANSIVE CUT-OFF DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A BROAD SWATH OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE CONTINENTAL US...WHICH IS IN TURN CAUSING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING CORE SPEEDS OF 150-180 KT IS SCREAMING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA SWWD TO 20N92W. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS IS INDICATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA. AT 03Z...WEAK 1014 MB HIGH PRES HAS BUILT IN BEHIND THE FRONT CENTERED OVER THE GULF...JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA AND ALSO ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR TAMPICO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY SAT UNTIL A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NEW MEXICO GIVES THE BOUNDARY A SECOND PUSH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE OF THE GULF WATERS BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE SW GULF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. CARIBBEAN... A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS ALONG 18N/19N STRETCHING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO EXTREME SE MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SW TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...THEN SW ACROSS COSTA RICA. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. A FEW TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING NW TOWARDS PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS. ATLANTIC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS AREA IS COVERED BY AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE TRANSITIONING INTO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALONG 62W...WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING EWD FROM FLORIDA TO 60W. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N40W TO 19N57W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT LIES ALONG 32N39W 28N50W 28N58W. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES ALONG 52W FROM 13N TO 21N...MAINLY AS A PRESSURE PERTURBATION BUT ALSO SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF SLIGHT TURNING IN THE CUMULUS FIELD. OVER THE E ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING SW TO 26N40W. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N40W IN THE TROPICS NE TO MADEIRA ISLAND THEN EWD INTO NORTHERN MOROCCO. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS W AFRICA OR THE E ATLC WATERS. $$ GR/HC