000 AXNT20 KNHC 022333 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N20W EQ38W 2S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 3N BETWEEN 27W-50W... EXTENDING TO THE BRAZILIAN COAST. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... EXPANSIVE CUT-OFF DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS PRODUCING A BROAD SWATH OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE CONTINENTAL US...WHICH IS IN TURN CAUSING NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING CORE SPEEDS OF 150-180 KT IS SCREAMING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA SWWD TO 24N90W AS A QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT...THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALL BUT VANISHED ALONG THE FRONT WITH REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS INDICATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE TO NEAR CEDAR KEY IN FLORIDA. WEAK 1013 MB HIGH PRES HAS BUILT IN BEHIND THE FRONT CENTERED OVER SW LOUISIANA AND ALSO ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR TAMPICO. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY SAT UNTIL A SECOND SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NEW MEXICO GIVES THE BOUNDARY A SECOND PUSH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE OF THE GULF WATERS BY SUN AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE SW GULF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. CARIBBEAN... A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS ALONG 18N/19N STRETCHING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO EXTREME SE MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SW TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...THEN SW ACROSS PANAMA. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION...THE STRONGEST AREA BEING JUST N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SCARCE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING NW TOWARDS PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ATLANTIC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS AREA IS COVERED BY AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE TRANSITIONING INTO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALONG 62W...WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING EWD FROM FLORIDA TO 65W. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N47W TO 19N57W AND THE DIFFLUENCE E OF IT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DEVELOPING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 28N BETWEEN 43W-46W. THIS ACTIVITY LIES NEAR A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT LYING ALONG 32N39W 28N50W 26N55W. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES ALONG 52W FROM 14N TO 21N... MAINLY AS A PRESSURE PERTURBATION BUT ALSO SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF SLIGHT TURNING IN THE CUMULUS FIELD. OVER THE E ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N22W WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING SW TO 28N42W. A REX BLOCK IS IN PROGRESS AT THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN EXTENDED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N42W IN THE TROPICS NE TO MADEIRA ISLAND THEN EWD INTO NORTHERN MOROCCO...LYING ON TOP OF A SHEARED TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ALGERIA TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 15N29W SW OF THE CAPE VERDES. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN IS OBSTRUCTING THE OVERALL FLOW S OF 35N...SO THINGS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS OR SO. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS W AFRICA OR THE E ATLC WATERS. $$ COBB