000
AXNT20 KNHC 011805
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU MAR 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
6N10W 2N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 40W...INTO 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 3N12W 2N20W 1N30W 1S39W 1N46W 1N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO INTO THE 
GULF WATERS AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME. 
THE TROUGH REACHES EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
THE SURFACE FRONTAL STRUCTURE IS OVER LAND. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 
28N100W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A WARM FRONT TOUCHES SOUTHEASTERN 
MISSISSIPPI AND GOES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE PRESENT EVERYWHERE...EXCEPT FOR THE 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 25N65W 
TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 250 NM SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA CLOSE TO 
70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE.
THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS BROAD AND CYCLONIC SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 
70W AND 82W. THE FLOW IS EASTERLY EAST OF 70W...EASTERLY NORTH 
OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AS IT 
CROSSES 80W AND NORTH OF 16N INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF JAMAICA
HEADING TO CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 25N65W
TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 250 NM SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA CLOSE TO 
70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 12N55W TO 26N52W TO 32N54W.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR 26N28W TO 20N38W. ANOTHER MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS SURROUNDED 
BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE FROM MOROCCO AND
MAURITANIA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 15N30W AND 15N40W.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N49W TO 26N60W TO 24N66W.
A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 
23N76W. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
NEAR 33N23W TO 28N36W 24N49W TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
NEAR 19N65W NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 32N47W 29N55W 28N60W 24N64W. HIGH PRESSURE ALSO IS 
BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF THE COLD FRONT.

$$
MT