000 AXNT20 KNHC 281805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 6N10W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 44W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 38W AND 43W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS...AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W. THE FLOW TAKES A DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IN MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 20N100W TO 24N103W TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 29N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN EXTREME OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 30N88W TO 31N91W...AND THEN IS WARM NORTHWEST OF 31N91W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS NEAR 16N83W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA...IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS SOUTH OF 15N...ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS...AND THEN SHOWING UP COMPARATIVELY MORE PROMINENTLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE... EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EXCEPT IN THE CLOUD-FREE AREA WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM OF THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 64W AND 76W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N68W BEYOND 29N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 28N74W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 26N80W...CUTTING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR 25N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N55W TO 27N60W TO 25N67W TO 27N70W 26N74W TO 26N78W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A JET STREAM OF 70 TO 80 KT WIND SPEEDS IS WITHIN 200 TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N80W 27N64W BEYOND 31N54W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 5N TO 23N WEST OF AFRICA IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM MOROCCO AND MAURITANIA TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 13N42W. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N27W TO 30N35W 27N42W 24N55W 24N70W TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N86W. $$ MT