000 AXNT20 KNHC 281114 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N16W 2N31W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W-51W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E US AND THE NE GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT BEGINNING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AGAIN...EXTENDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W BECOMING STATIONARY AGAIN AT THE N GULF COAST NEAR MISSISSIPPI. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY NW UPPER FLOW. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT ENTERS THE GULF OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N85 ACROSS FLORIDA OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE FAR W ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AGAIN DOMINATES THE GULF...BUT ONLY FOR A SHORT WHILE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC IS CROSSING N MEXICO AND ALL OF TEXAS...MOVING INTO THE NW GULF IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE SE GULF WITHIN 45 NM OF 24N E OF 88W BUT THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE W GULF N OF 22N W OF 90W. CARIBBEAN... ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OF THE ATLC COMBINED WITH THE LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICS ARE GENERATING STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 14N W OF 78W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC... MID/UPPER UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E US AND THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 60W WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N63W W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W THEN ALONG THE NE GULF COAST STATES. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS S OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W NE TO BEYOND 32N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N75W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 30N64W ALONG 26N68W TO THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N73W. BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THIS SECOND TROUGH WITHIN 75/90 NM OF A LINE FROM 25N67W TO BEYOND 32N56W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC FROM 23N-29N E OF 74W TO COAST OF FLORIDA. WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 24N58W N TO BEYOND 32N55W. WESTERLY UPPER ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC E OF 65W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N22W WSW TO 25N65W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY E OF 50W. $$ WALLACE