000 AXNT20 KNHC 252354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W EQ30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 16W-18W. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 21W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CLUSTERS ARE WITHIN 150NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF WATERS S OF THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W AND CONTINUES SW TO 25N92W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN WEST FLORIDA AND 86W. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS REGION...WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOW IN BETTER VIEW OF THE TAMPA RADAR. THE REST OF THE FRONT IS A BIT TAMER...MARKED BY BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM. SFC WINDS ARE NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH THIS FRONT WITH ONLY A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FROM ERN TEXAS. WINDS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FAR NE PORTION AND ALSO JUST W OF THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT TO THE MEXICAN COAST. THIS RELAXES FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE FRONT WEAKENS WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY LIFTING WELL NE OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE DEEP LAYER LOW JUST W OF THE GREAT LAKES. MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WATERS...WHICH IS ADVECTING A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE EWD THROUGH THE GULF N OF 24N. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR PERSIST OVER THE REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES E OF 80W ARE ADVECTING TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WWD...WITH STRONGER TRADES AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. MODERATE WINDS VEER MORE SE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE GULF SECTION. UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE WRN ATLC AHEAD OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW W OF THE GREAT LAKES. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING THE SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING E IN THE AREA N OF 25N FROM THE EAST COAST TO NEAR 60 W. A 1023 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 31N72W DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WRN ATLC...WHICH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N43W 22N60W THEN STATIONARY TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N71W. THIS FRONT IS LOOKING RATHER RAGGED IN GENERAL THOUGH AN AREA OF LOW TO MID MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS HAS HELD TOGETHER E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. 1800 UTC GFS RUN HAS THIS AREA INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL...AND SUGGESTS IT WILL LIFT SLOWLY N/NE THROUGH EARLY WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. ALSO SEEING SOME SIMILAR MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N...WHICH SEEMS IN LINE WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 32N41W 25N48W. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING EXTENDING S FROM NEWFOUNDLAND. MUCH OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS. THERE IS A SMALL UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N35W BUT THIS IS NOT GENERATING ANY NOTABLE WEATHER. 1028 MB SFC HIGH JUST E OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. $$ MW