000
AXNT20 KNHC 250005
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N20W EQ25W 1S30W EQ40W 1S50W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 
12W-14W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 16W-18W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 25W-30W...AND FROM EQ-2N 
BETWEEN 38W-41W.     

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 30N96W 28N98W 
27N100W.  DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A ROPE CLOUD LINE WITH STRONG 
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER E TEXAS/ W LOUISIANA.  A 1026 MB 
HIGH IS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N79W.  MODERATE SELY RETURN 
FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE COLD 
FRONT.  A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE 
GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS 
ALONG 80W.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUDS IS N OF 25N AND E OF 94W MOVING E.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO 
EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT 
RAIN.     

CARIBBEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA 
NEAR 20N73W.  A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS E TO PUERTO RICO.  LIGHT TO MODERATE 
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 64W.  IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW 
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  
EXPECT THE FRONT OVER HISPANIOLA TO DRIFT E AND PRODUCE LIGHT 
RAIN OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.     

ATLANTIC...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N79W.  FAIR WEATHER 
DOMINATES THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W AND N OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N48W TO 
HISPANIOLA ALONG 26N60W 20N73W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS 240 NM E OF FRONT.  A 1028 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS 
NEAR 30N24W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N50W.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A 
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-50W.  WLY FLOW IS E OF 20W.        

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FORMOSA