000 AXNT20 KNHC 241133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT FEB 24 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N20W 1N34W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED/MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 12W-16W AND SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 33W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BEGINNING OT SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE GULF ALONG 86W CONTINUING FAIR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE N GULF BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WARM FRONT IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS AND EXTENDS BETWEEN HOUSTON AND PORT ARTHUR TEXAS ESE TO 28N88W. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST USHERING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY INTO THE DAY SUN CROSSING THEN CLEARING THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NW GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY SAT NIGHT THEN SHIFT TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN... MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN MOST WINDWARD ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...THIS IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR OVER THE REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED. A BAND OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS...LIKELY A REMNANT OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DOES EXTEND FROM OVER HISPANIOLA TO OVER JAMAICA. ATLANTIC... A LARGE AND COMPLEX POLAR VORTEX IS MOVING E OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SWEEPING ACROSS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. AN 972 MB LOW WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINS STRONG WITH WINDS IN THE REGION BELOW GALE FORCE. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N53W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ABOUT 200 NM SE OF THE FRONT...EXTENDING FROM 30N50W TO 22N60W. WHILE THE FRONT ITSELF IS RATHER DRY...THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN UP TO 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 25N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM W OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AS IT REACHES THE N CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE PORTION CONTINUING TO THE E AND PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N67W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS ARE CENTERED...OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N25W WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 21N47W. THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 25N WITH A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N26W SW TO 12N35W AND ITS OWN PATCH OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN A 200/250 NM OF THE AXIS. $$ WALLACE