000
AXNT20 KNHC 211111
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 4N14W 4N21W 1N28W 1N38W ACROSS 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S52W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
AXIS FROM 11W-32W AND FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 46W-51W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER 
THE SE US AND INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER 
THE W ATLC EXTENDS W OVER THE GULF ALONG 27N TO 90W WITH 
LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. DRY AIR REMAINS 
IN CONTROL OF THE GULF S OF 27N. THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS 
CENTERED MOSTLY N OF THE REGION WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT 
EXTENDING FROM OVER MEXICO TO ACROSS FLORIDA N OF 25N SUPPLYING 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE N GULF TO INLAND OVER SE US WITH 
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF A LINE FROM TEXAS NEAR 
27N97W TO FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W. HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN 
CONTROL OF THE GULF UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ENTERS THE GULF ON 
SUNDAY. 
   
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CLIPS THE N CARIBBEAN N 
OF 15N FROM THE CENTRAL LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO CENTRAL 
CUBA WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE 
VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W SW TO 13N76W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-17N 
E OF 84W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG EASTERLY TRADE 
WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK EASTERLY 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA 
INTO THE W ATLC W OF 72W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 48W WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N34W EXTENDING SW TO 26N46W 
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N59W CONTINUING INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN AS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS 
NEAR 18N64W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS CENTERED MOSTLY N OF 
THE REGION WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT EXTENDING FROM OVER THE SE 
US INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF A LINE FROM 25N80W 25N57W TO 
BEYOND 32N34W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC 
NEAR 22N35W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 32N22W. A 
SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER AFRICA W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 
16N16W S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 13N30W 15N44W TO NEAR 
10N59W UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC. 
DRY UPPER AIR WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLC 
WITH LOW LEVEL BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS E OF 60W. SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH FORMING A WEAKNESS AND A 1024 MB 
HIGH CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N62W WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING 
W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A 1023 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE 
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N23W. 

$$
WALLACE