000
AXNT20 KNHC 151737
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR AT 35W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 3S44W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-38W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 5S-1N 
BETWEEN 38W-43W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 
EQ-2N BETWEEN 46W-51W.  

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE ALONG 24N80W 21N90W 19N96W.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N 
OF THE FRONT.  COMPOSITE DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN SOUTH TEXAS AND THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE.  15-20 KT NLY WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W.  
GALE FORCE NLY WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT THE COLD 
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S 
MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE 
ALONG THE FRONT.  LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE GULF OF 
MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT.  IN FACT...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN 
ISSUED FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOME 
SECTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA.  
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS TRAVERSE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF 
70W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS OVER THE WRN AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 15N.  A WEAK TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN 
CARIBBEAN.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE SEA SUPPRESSING 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  EXPECT LITTLE 
CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N60W 29N70W 24N80W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT.  A 1026 MB HIGH 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N44W.  THE TAIL END OF A 
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS 
ALONG 32N24W 27N33W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF 
FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N 
OF 20N AND W OF 40W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N 
BETWEEN 10W-40W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 28N.  TROUGH AXIS IS 
ALONG 25W.  A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS E OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS TO 5W OVER W AFRICA.   

$$
FORMOSA