000 AXNT20 KNHC 142344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 37W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 3S44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 5S-1S BETWEEN 40W-45W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. AT 21Z...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM N-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 22N90W TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR POZA RICA. 20 KT NLY WINDS WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. THE COLD AIR IS BANKING UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND A STATIONARY FRONT IS INDICATED THERE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH RUNS FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE NE PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LINES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE GULF WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SW GULF LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY ZONAL FLOW WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DOMINATE THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA. LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS DRIVEN BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ONE OF THEM IS APPROACHING JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EPAC EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DRY AND STABLE SINKING AIR IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE. A WEAK TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL ENTER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRIDAY MORNING AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS WELL N OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT SOUTH OF 31N W OF 58W. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE STRONG WINDS. A COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM THIS SFC LOW TO N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N20W 26N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70-90 NM E OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 60W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-60W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 50W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 28N. A TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-40W. TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 25W. A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF AFRICA. $$ GR