000
AXNT20 KNHC 141758
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
AT 36W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 3S44W.  WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF OF BRAZIL FROM 5S-1N 
BETWEEN 38W-41W.   

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 
TO NE MEXICO ALONG 30N83W 26N86W 23N93W 25N100W.  20 KT NLY 
WINDS WITH OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  A PREFRONTAL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF AND N YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 26N83W 
20N88W.  THERE IS NO APPARENT PRECIPITATION.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... WLY ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S 
FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS TRAVERSE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF 
74W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A WEAK TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
ENTIRE SEA SUPPRESSING ALL THUNDERSTORMS.  EXPECT SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER W CUBA DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  EXPECT 
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N54W.  THE TAIL 
END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY 
ISLANDS ALONG 32N23W 26N40W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM 
E OF FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-70W.  A RIDGE IS IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-60W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 50W.  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 28N.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-40W.  TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 27W.  A BAND OF 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS E OF THE 
CANARY ISLANDS TO W AFRICA.    

$$
FORMOSA