000
AXNT20 KNHC 120615
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N10W 4N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W...1S40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN 
BRAZIL AT 3S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W...AND
FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO 
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 18W...
AND FROM 1S TO 3N BETWEEN 28W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
WATERS. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST
OF 90W. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE EAST OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 23N95W 27N96W 28N96W. EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED
ALONG THIS TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE 
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH WEST OF 90W. A STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES TO BE BANKED UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS
OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES OVER ANDROS ISLANDS IN
THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHEASTERN 
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NORTHERN BELIZE AND NORTHEASTERN GUATEMALA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS
OF CLOUDS SOUTH OF 18N EAST OF 70W...AND NORTH OF 18N WEST OF 
78W. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE 
EQUATOR WEST OF 64W MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN...PASSING ON 
TOP OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...BEFORE REACHING 16N74W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N50W TO 
27N60W TO 25N70W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND...THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 28N50W 
TO 22N60W TO THE NORTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 30N WEST OF 42W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH APPEARS TO BE IN PHASE WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
NEAR 16N28W. THE NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH REACHES NEAR 24N29W.
A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1028 MB MADEIRA ISLANDS HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER TO 25N35W TO 24N43W. BROAD REMNANT CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM THE EQUATOR TO 12N BETWEEN 27W AND 42W. A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE FORMING ON TOP
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
MT