000 AXNT20 KNHC 112349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 25W...1S30W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 2S48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 11W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 31W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF WHILE A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT COVERING THE SE GULF...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. PART OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO AFFECTING WESTERN CUBA. WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE FROM THE NE AT 10-20 KT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NWD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN OVER THE AREA. THE TROUGH IS GENERATING SOME SHOWERS HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. COLD AIR HAS PENETRATED INTO THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AS DEPICTED BY RATHER UNIFORM STRATUS CLOUDS COVER AND A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED THERE ON THE 21Z MAP. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH IS OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME CURVED LINES OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OVER THE NW GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH IS ENTERING THE FAR W GULF. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE E GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ABUNDANT MID/UPPER DRY AIR REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N65W. THE SLY WINDS ON THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IS DRAWING SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...THE DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM FORMING. THE TAIL END OF AN ATLC COLD FRONT IS GENERATING SOME CLOUDINESS WITH OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE E CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...WESTERN CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW FROM 32N50W TO NEAR 24N75W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE FRONT. WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 25N58W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 31N40W. A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL-EAST ATLC OCEAN. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER N VENEZUELA ALSO DOMINATES THE W-CENTRAL ATLC WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 29/30W. $$ GR