000
AXNT20 KNHC 111825
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 
25W...1S30W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 2S50W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W 
AFRICA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 8W-15W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 31W-35W.   

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE ALONG 24N80W 26N90W 25N96W 20N97W.  KEY WEST FLORIDA   
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
IS ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.  WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE 
FROM THE NE AT 10-20 KT.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W CUBA 
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 23N82W 22N87W 19N91W.  BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE 
BACK SIDE OF A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING SWLY WINDS.  A 
BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO S OF 
26N.   EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 93W IN 24 HOURS.  AT THE SURFACE... 
EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF 95W TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE STATIONARY 
FRONT TO BACK AS A WARM FRONT AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO 
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS AND CONVECTION 
WILL BE HEAVIEST OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO.     
  
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE E CARIBBEAN 
SEA E OF 72W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 82W-88W.  NELY SURFACE FLOW 
OVER HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CENTER IS OVER N VENEZUELA NEAR 8N65W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER TO STAY 
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AT THE SURFACE... EXPECT 
LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE SURFACE TRADEWINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT IMPROVED WEATHER OVER THE YUCATAN AND YUCATAN 
CHANNEL.  W CUBA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.    

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW FROM 32N63W 
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N80W.  LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1018 MB LOW IS N OF 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 25N59W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 
31N50W.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS 
NEAR 32N16W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY WLY ZONAL FLOW IS W 
OF 40W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 16N25W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-25N BETWEEN 23W-35W.  WLY 
ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 25N E OF 40W.  

$$
FORMOSA