000 AXNT20 KNHC 110614 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 7N7W 6N12W 2N20W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W...AND TO THE EQUATOR AT 40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 1S49W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 1N6W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 4W AND 7W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 7W AND 8W...AND WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 2N9W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 32W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR BERMUDA TO 30N72W TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 26N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N95W...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...CLEARLY DEFINED BY THICK LOW CLOUDS BANKED UP AGAINST THE TOPOGRAPHY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND WEST OF 94W. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER UNIFORM FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO FIND THE FRONT BASED SOLELY ON WIND DIRECTIONS. A TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS QUITE CLEAR IN THE REGION WITH BUOYS/SHIPS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40'S AND 50'S FAHRENHEIT NORTH OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 60'S FAHRENHEIT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS SHOW THAT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BECOME DIFFUSE...AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY TUESDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EAST OF THE AREA IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE RIDGE STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 13N67W 22N73W. ABUNDANT DRY STABLE AIR/SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND PRECIPITATION FROM FORMING. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH IS ESSENTIALLY A LINE OF CONFLUENT WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERN WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE EAST/SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM A 1016 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N63W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COAST NEAR 19N70W. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. TRADE WINDS ARE MODERATE. THESE SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY ON SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE IN SPEED ON MONDAY A RIDGE THAT NOW IS IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR BERMUDA TO 30N72W TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 26N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE NORTH OF 25N76W 26N66W BEYOND 31N57W. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N45W TO 28N50W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N63W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COAST NEAR 19N70W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WESTERLY FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST EASTWARD TO 42W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N37W TO 28N44W TO 24N50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N63W 26N53W 30N45W BEYOND 33N34W. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N19W TO 26N36W TO 21N56W TO 18N60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N27W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 15N40W 12N47W. $$ MT