000 AXNT20 KNHC 101750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 25W TO 1S30W EQ40W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 9W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 28W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-3N BETWEEN 32W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO S TEXAS ALONG 29N81W 27N90W 25N97W. BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE MEXICO AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 95W-99W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE FROM THE NE AT 15-25 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. A BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N. EXPECT THE FRONT TO DRIFT S TO S FLORIDA AND WEAKEN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE ACROSS THE FRONT AND NO CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE E CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 72W. SIMILAR CLOUDS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 83W-88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 MB LOW IS W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N68W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 28N70W 28N75W A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N50W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 25N60W 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N20W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 20N50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY WLY ZONAL FLOW IS W OF 40W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 15N28W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-25N BETWEEN 23W-35W. WLY ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 25N E OF 40W. $$ FORMOSA