000 AXNT20 KNHC 101146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W EQ20W 1S30W 1N40W...CROSSING AGAIN THE EQUATOR AT 47W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 30W-36W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 8W-11W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT LIES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ALONG 29N85W 25N94W ENTERING MAINLAND MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE SE US AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE MEXICO AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH S ACROSS THE GULF AND WILL EXTEND FROM FT MYERS FLORIDA TO S TEXAS TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND MOVE E THROUGH MON. FURTHER S...A WEAK SFC TROUGH RUNS FROM 27N86W TO 20N88W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AFFECTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF WHERE SURFACE DATA INDICATES NLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE AREA BY STRONG SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ABUNDANT MID/UPPER DRY AIR REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE ALSO DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM FORMING. POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BEING DRIVEN WWD BY MODERATE TRADE WINDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS SOME INFLUENCE FROM A SFC TROUGH IN THE SE GULF. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH OVER THE ATLC IS GENERATING SOME CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MOVE E AND WEAKEN TODAY RESULTING IN DECREASING ELY TRADES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT JUST OFF OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 09Z...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N69W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 28N77W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N65W NE TO 32N53W AND BEYOND. MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS THESE FRONTS. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH CORE WINDS OF 130-150 KT LIES ALONG 30N AND IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE W-CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N. A SFC TROUGH GOES FROM 24N65W TO 19N70W. A 1015 MB SFC LOW IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 23N67W. THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING SOME CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AND THE TROUGH WILL PROBABLY MERGE WITH THE FRONT TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N58W. PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE SINKING AIR EXISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLC W OF 30W S OF 26N. IN THE E ATLC...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N30W. SWLY WINDS SE OF THE LOW ARE DRAWING FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE W COAST OF AFRICA. THE SFC PATTERN IN THE E-CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS DOMINATED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE NE TO E WINDS OF AROUND 20 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH. $$ GR