000 AXNT20 KNHC 100555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-2N BETWEEN 30W-36W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 3N TO THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK PRES PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND A TROUGH DOMINATES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS ENTERING MAINLAND MEXICO AS A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE SE U.S. FROM LOUISIANA ALL THE WAY EAST TO SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH S ACROSS THE GULF AND WILL EXTEND FROM FT MYERS FLORIDA TO S TEXAS LATE SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT SAT AND MOVE E THROUGH MON. FURTHER S...A WEAK SFC TROUGH RUNS FROM 26N84W TO 20N87W. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AFFECTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL. WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA... EXCEPT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF WHERE NLY WINDS ARE INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE AREA BY STRONG SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ABUNDANT MID/UPPER DRY AIR REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE ALSO DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE DRY AIR/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM FORMING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE BEING DRIVEN WWD BY MODERATE TRADE WINDS. THE PATCHES APPEAR THICKEST IN THE SE CARIBBEAN/THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS SOME INFLUENCE FROM A SFC TROUGH IN THE GULF. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH OVER THE ATLC IS GENERATING SOME CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MOVE E AND WEAKEN TODAY RESULTING IN DECREASING ELY TRADES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 03Z...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N72W THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NE TO 32N50W AND BEYOND. MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS THESE FRONTS. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH CORE WINDS OF 130-150 KT LIES ALONG 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 85W. SE OF THE FRONTS DESCRIBED THERE IS A SFC TROUGH THAT GOES FROM 26N62W TO 19N70W. A 1016 MB SFC LOW IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 23N68W. THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AND THE TROUGH WILL PROBABLY MERGE WITH THE FRONT TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N58W. PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE SINKING AIR EXISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLC W OF 30W S OF 26N. IN THE E ATLC...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N30W. SWLY WINDS SE OF THE LOW ARE DRAWING FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE W COAST OF AFRICA. THE SFC PATTERN IN THE E-CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS DOMINATED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO KEEP THE WEATHER RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS THE AREA. $$ GR