000 AXNT20 KNHC 091159 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 09 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 5N8W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 35W...TO 1S40W... TO THE NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3S44W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W... FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 19W AND 20W...AND FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 23W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN SMALL CLUSTERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11 BETWEEN 23W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 19N111W...HELPING TO PUSH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE OPEN GULF WATERS. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO THROUGH 20N100W...UNDER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW OVER MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE WATERS IMMEDIATELY OFF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 27N87W 24N87W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... TO 21N87W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING FROM TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THEN BECOMING NOT SO APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HUGGING THE COASTAL PLAINS AND NOW THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN U.S.A. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT JUST BARELY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N72W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE WHICH STARTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE... AND IT IS AT ITS COMPARATIVELY MOST CONCENTRATED AMOUNT NEAR THE DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CENTER. EASTERLY WINDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS MOSTLY EAST OF 67W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING JUST EAST OF BERMUDA TO 28N66W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING MORE THAN ONE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N70W 27N77W. A SECOND FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 30N67W. A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N61W 22N75W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N55W 27N61W 24N72W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH TO 20N WEST OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 22N25W BEYOND 32N26W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N28W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 11N31W AND MAYBE TO 10N40W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD 40W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 31N43W TO 27N50W TO 24N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MOROCCO NEAR 32N6W TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N23W TO 28N34W TO 23N49W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N43W 24N60W STATIONARY FRONT. $$ MT