000 AXNT20 KNHC 061745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE FEB 06 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N25W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 70 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 TO 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-24W AND BETWEEN 37W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WITH A 1034 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF...GIVING THE AREA MODERATE TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS. THIS MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WED THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. BASED OF SURFACE DATA AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF ON THE 15Z MAP. THIS TROUGH LIES ALONG 96W FROM 25N-28N. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW TO THE SE OF A SHARP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM GEORGIA TO NE MEXICO...WHICH IS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ON THE ATLANTIC SECTION. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE GULF SE OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO TO FT. MYERS...WITH A CLEARING TREND ELSEWHERE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE KEYS AND THE COASTAL WATERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF ON FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE BASIN AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE ALSO DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE ABC ISLANDS. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. SOME OF THEM WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICA FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO HONDURAS. POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA EWD ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MODERATE ELY TRADE WINDS CONTINUES TO BLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT JUST OFF OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES E AND WEAKENS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO DOMINATES THE W-CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING NE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 32N38W AND BEYOND. PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE SINKING AIR EXISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL IS RIDING ON THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE AFFECTING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND THE E ATLC E OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE E ATLC AND THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 15N35W CONTINUING SW TO 11N50W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER WEST AFRICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE DRAWING FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS INTO W AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE OVER THE W ATLC. ONE IS A DYING COLD FRONT WHICH IS ALSO THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND E CUBA. THE SECOND ONE IS THE PREVIOUSLY REINFORCING FRONT THAT NOW BECOMES THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N60W THEN CONTINUES SWWD TO NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A 120 NM WIDE BAND OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE MAIN FRONT. A 1027 MB SFC HIGH SITUATED NEAR 28N37W COVERS THE ATLC AND THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF THE DYING FRONT. MODERATE NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM. $$ GR