000
AXNT20 KNHC 051156
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N9W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 33W...TO 2S40W AND 
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS 
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF 5N10W 5N20W 2N25W 2S34W 4S42W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN NEAR 18N110W TO WESTERN MEXICO NEAR 24N105W...TO THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 28N100W...BECOMING A TROUGH/SHEAR
AXIS SOMEWHERE IN THERE FROM WESTERN MEXICO TO THE BORDER
WITH TEXAS...AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND EAST TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
FROM MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...NORTHEASTWARD 
ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS...CROSSING FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE ENTIRE 
AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME DRY AIR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER AND JUST 
OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA FROM ANDROS ISLAND TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO THE 
WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO JUST OFF THE COAST 
OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHERN PART OF 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. RAIN IS EASILY WITHIN 60 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH 
FLORIDA WHERE IT RAINED FOR THE WHOLE DAY ON SUNDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 500 MB TO 350 MB COVERS THE AREA.
EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB.
THE SURFACE WIND FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 74W. SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITH THE CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS EAST
OF 67W AND NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W BASICALLY AROUND 
HISPANIOLA. THE COMPARATIVELY DRYEST AIR IS FOUND SOUTH OF
17N BETWEEN 73W AND 84W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW LEAVES FROM THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. IT CROSSES FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...GOING NORTH 
OF 30N AS FAR AS 30W...BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 
36N23W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 35N21W CYCLONIC CENTER
TO 28N22W 22N28W 15N41W 12N50W 10N57W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N23W JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE 
AZORES AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N18W 
TO 30N20W AND 25N29W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS 
GENERALLY SOUTH OF 30N WEST OF 50W...AND SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 
30W AND 50W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN 120 TO
180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH EAST OF 40W AND WITHIN
300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WEST OF 40W. A 1026 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N43W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 30W.

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MT