000 AXNT20 KNHC 050602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON FEB 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 7N10W 3N20W 1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 33W TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N10W 5N20W...AND WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N20W 4N26W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 18N110W TO WESTERN MEXICO NEAR 24N105W...TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 28N100W...BECOMING A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS SOMEWHERE IN THERE FROM WESTERN MEXICO TO THE BORDER WITH TEXAS...AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND EAST TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... FROM MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS...CROSSING FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE PART SOUTHEAST OF 28N80W 23N87W 19N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FROM ANDROS ISLAND TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. RAIN IS EASILY WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE IT RAINED FOR PRACTICALLY THE WHOLE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 500 MB TO 350 MB COVERS THE AREA. EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 74W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLUSTERS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF 67W AND NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 74W BASICALLY AROUND HISPANIOLA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW LEAVES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT CROSSES FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...GOING NORTH OF 30N AS FAR AS 30W...BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 36N23W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 36N23W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 27N27W 19N34W 10N46W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 38N25W IN THE AZORES AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 30N21W AND 25N29W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF 30N WEST OF 50W... AND SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N39W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 30W. $$ MT