000
AXNT20 KNHC 042337
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W EQ33W 3S42W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 21W-26W...AND FROM 
2S-4S BETWEEN 39W-41W ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 
24N80W TO THE NRN YUCATAN NEAR 21N90W TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE 
NEAR 18N93W.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE N OF THE FRONT.  15-20 KT NELY WINDS ARE ALSO N OF THE 
FRONT.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE S OF THE 
FRONT WITH 15-20 KT SELY WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  
EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO STAY IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE 
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE THE 
THICKEST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AREAS OF 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY E 
OF 73W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE SEA WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM PANAMA TO 
BEYOND HISPANIOLA.  THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS 
THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANCE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC ALONG 32N61W 28N70W 
24N80W.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
N OF THE FRONT.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
NEAR 30N41W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 26N68W.  A COLD 
FRONT IS OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC ALONG 32N21W 26N30W.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W.  A 
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  
AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 15N40W.  SWLY 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA