000 AXNT20 KNHC 041739 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 04 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N25W 1N34W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W CONTINUING ALONG 3S40W INTO NE BRAZIL. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 160 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W-40W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF GIVING THE AREA MODERATE TO STRONG NELY WINDS. THE HIGHEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT 15Z...A 1031 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED OVER LOUISIANA. A STRONGER SFC HIGH WILL INVADE THE GULF ON MONDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN THE 25 TO 30 KT WINDS OVER THE SRN GULF WATERS THROUGH TUE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS HIGH IS A REINFORCING FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO REACH N FLORIDA TONIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED AND GENERATED BY UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW TO THE E OF A SLOW MOVING SHARP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS NW MEXICO INTO THE EPAC. THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING AND AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE MEXICO AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS. GFS MODEL SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONTINUING ITS SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE LIFTING AND BECOMING ABSORBED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION CENTERED IN THE EPAC SOUTH OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA. THIS FEATURE ALSO DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT...RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA...PARTICULARLY THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS QUITE STRONG. BELOW THE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THEM ARE CROSSING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS MOVING INTO PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUPLIC WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS. RATHER STRONG ELY TRADES...MAINLY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE AREA E OF 78W. THIS MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE STRONG WINDS. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX A LITTLE IN THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIB AS HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SHIFTS E. NELY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND S GULF AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS S OVER THE SE US MONDAY THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS NE INTO THE W-CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE GREATER ANTILLES. PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE SINKING AIR EXISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE S OF 27N. A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE E ATLC AND THE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 32N27W...15N40W CONTINUING MAINLY WESTWARD TO NEAR TRINIDAD-TOBAGO ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER WEST AFRICA. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE DRAWING FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY ISLANDS INTO AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE AZORES S AND SW ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 30N25W THEN CONTINUING TO 26N31W. THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF/STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS THE W ATLC ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND LIKELY ISOLATED SHOWERS IS BEHIND THE FRONT. IN BETWEEN THE FRONTS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A 1029 MB SFC HIGH SITUATED NEAR 32N40W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC W OF 40W AND WILL SLIGHTLY MOVE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. $$ GR