000 AXNT20 KNHC 041119 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN FEB 04 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N28W 1N34W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W CONTINUING ALONG 2S42W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-36W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 5N11W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LIES TO THE N OF A STALLED OR VERY SLOW MOVING FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO SRN MEXICO ALONG 24N81W 23N88W 18N93W. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRAD...BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SRN GEORGIA...IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG NELY WINDS ESPECIALLY S OF 26N. A PLUME OF THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STEAMING ACROSS THE REGION NW OF A LINE ALONG 19N96W 29N83W. THIS PLUME IS TRANSPORTED AND GENERATED BY MOIST UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW TO THE E OF A SLOW MOVING SHARP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC. AVAILABLE DOPPLER RADAR COVERAGE DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS OVER S FLA...THE KEYS AND THE STRAITS ASSOCIATED WITH OVERRUNNING FRONTAL MOISTURE. LIGHTER SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN THE W GULF S OF BRO AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF N AND CENTRAL FL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. GFS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONTINUING ITS SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE LIFTING AND BECOMING ABSORBED. THE SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MODERATE TO STRONG SIDE IN THE SRN GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES SURGES SWD. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION CENTERED IN THE EPAC WITH A ROUGH TITLED RIDGE AXIS ALONG 7N84W 18N78W ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND WELL NWD INTO THE ATLC. ABUNDANT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA...ESPECIALLY S OF 15N WHERE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS QUITE STRONG. BELOW THE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. RATHER STRONG ELY TRADES...MAINLY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE AREA E OF ABOUT 78W. THESE WINDS SLACKEN IN THE NW CARIB IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT IN THE S GULF. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX A LITTLE IN THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIB AS HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SHIFTS E. MEANWHILE...NELY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND S GULF AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS S OVER THE SE U.S. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE GULF SECTION IS IN THE W ATLC ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WHILE IR IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD CLOUD TOPS...CONSIDERABLE DENSE CLOUDINESS AND LIKELY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. ALOFT...A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE W AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 45W. THIS RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM THE EPAC ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO JUST E OF BERMUDA. PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE SINKING AIR EXISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE S OF 27N. A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF THE RIDGE WITH TWO EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS. THE MORE VIGOROUS ONE IS VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE AZORES...THE OTHER IS UPPER LEVEL LOCATED NEAR 24N32W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING FURTHER SW TO 13N43W. A RELATED COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW IN THE AZORES TO 29N29W CONTINUING AS A TROF TO 26N34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 27N-33W. STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A RIDGE ALONG 12W IS GENERATING AND ADVECTED A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL E ATLC SE OF A LINE ALONG 9N37W 24N19W. THIS MOIST/DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN IS ALSO FAVORING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ...WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER INACTIVE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. $$ CANGIALOSI