000 AXNT20 KNHC 040552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN FEB 04 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N23W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W CONTINUING ALONG 2S38W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LIES TO THE N OF A STALLED OR VERY SLOW MOVING FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS ACROSS THE NRN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SIERRA MADRE SLOPES IN MEXICO ALONG 24N81W 22N88W 19N93W 25N100W. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRAD BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SRN MISSISSIPPI IS PRODUCING SOME STRONG NELY WINDS ESPECIALLY S OF 26N. A PLUME OF THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STEAMING ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION TRANSPORTED AND ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL SWLY WINDS TO THE E OF A SLOW MOVING SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC. AVAILABLE DOPPLER RADAR COVERAGE DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE W GULF S OF BRO AND LIGHT ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF N AND CENTRAL FL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. GFS SHOWS THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONTINUING ITS SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE LIFTING AND BECOMING ABSORBED. THE SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE MODERATE TO STRONG SIDE IN THE SRN GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES SURGES SWD. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION CENTERED IN THE EPAC WITH A ROUGH TITLED RIDGE AXIS ALONG 6N86W 18N78W ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND WELL NWD INTO THE ATLC. ABUNDANT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA...ESPECIALLY S OF 15N WHERE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS QUITE STRONG. BELOW THE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP...TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. RATHER STRONG ELY TRADES...MAINLY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE AREA E OF ABOUT 78W. THESE WINDS SLACKEN IN THE NW CARIB IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT IN THE S GULF. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX IN THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIB AS HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SHIFTS E. MEANWHILE...NELY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE NW CARIB AND S GULF AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS S OVER THE SE U.S. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT DISCUSSED IN THE GULF SECTION IS IN THE W ATLC ANALYZED ALONG 32N67W 27N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WHILE IR IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD CLOUD TOPS...CONSIDERABLE DENSE CLOUDINESS AND LIKELY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. ALOFT...A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE W AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 45W. THIS RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM THE EPAC ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO JUST E OF BERMUDA. PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE SINKING AIR EXISTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE S OF 27N. A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES TO THE E OF THE RIDGE WITH TWO EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS. THE MORE VIGOROUS ONE IS VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE AZORES...THE OTHER IS UPPER LEVEL LOCATED NEAR 23N33W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING FURTHER SW TO 13N44W. A RELATED SFC TROUGH/OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM 32N28W 24N36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 26N-33W. STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A RIDGE ALONG 14W IS GENERATING AND ADVECTED A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL E ATLC SE OF A LINE ALONG 10N38W 23N23W. THIS MOIST/DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS ALSO FAVORING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ...WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER INACTIVE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. $$ CANGIALOSI