000
AXNT20 KNHC 032326
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 33W CONTINUING ALONG 3S40W INTO NE BRAZIL. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 18W-22W...
FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 25W-29W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 32W-37W.  

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO THE NRN YUCATAN NEAR 21N90W TO THE SRN 
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE 
ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS NEAR 20N98W DRIFTING S.  OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  
15-20 KT NLY WINDS ARE ALSO N OF THE FRONT.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE S OF THE FRONT WITH 15-20 KT SLY WINDS
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW.   A 100-130 KT JETSTREAM WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND 
HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL 
MEXICO TO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 20N102W 30N91W 33N80W.  
THIS JETSTREAM IS MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO THE STATIONARY FRONT 
BELOW...THUS NOT PRODUCING MUCH UPPER LEVEL SLY PUSH TO THE 
FRONT.  EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO STAY IN THE SAME GENERAL 
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER 
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 86W AND S OF 25N WHERE MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS ARE THE THICKEST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA 
WITH AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY E OF 73W.  THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W HAS 
15-20 KT SELY SURFACE FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE SEA WITH RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA TO BEYOND HISPANIOLA.  THE STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF 
THUNDERSTORMS.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER 
CUBA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC ALONG 
32N69W 25N80W.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 37N41W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO THE 
BAHAMAS ALONG 27N55W 24N74W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN 
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N29W 23N47W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE 
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 23N35W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF 
THE CYCLONIC CENTER FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 26W-34W.  WLY UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW IS E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA