000
AXNT20 KNHC 030000
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N20W EQ25W 3S40W 3S50W.  
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-EQ BETWEEN 
32W-37W.  

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W 
TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W TO A 1008 MB LOW IN 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA 
MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS NEAR 20N98W.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  15-20 KT NLY 
WINDS ARE ALSO N OF THE FRONT.  15-20 KT SLY WINDS ARE S OF THE 
FRONT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH 
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS N OF 22N.  EXPECT THE COLD 
FRONT TO PUSH S AND EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE 
NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING.  OVERRUNNING 
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO W OF 86W AND 
S OF 25N.       

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
20-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA 
WITH AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY E OF 73W.  THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-20 KT 
SELY SURFACE FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE SEA WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
COSTA RICA TO BEYOND HISPANIOLA.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF ISOLATED 
SHOWERS OVER CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.   

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC ALONG 
30N77W 28N80W.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N37W 25N45W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE 
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  AN EMBEDDED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N38W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF 
THE CYCLONIC CENTER FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 32W-38W.  WLY UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW IS E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA