000 AXNT20 KNHC 021125 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 02 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W CONTINUING ALONG 2S37W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 14W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE BETWEEN 16W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS MOSTLY INLAND IN NE BRAZIL FROM 1S-5S BETWEEN 41W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 120 KT IS ADVECTING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE GULF. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW TRACKING AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT HAS NEARED. AT 09Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM A 1004 MB LOW IN SRN GEORGIA ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE TOWARD S CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG 31N84W 25N91W 22N97W. THE FRONT IS THEN STATIONARY NWD TO BRO. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL LIFT GENERATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN N FLA LAST NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS HELD TOGETHER AND PRESSED SE THIS MORNING. AT 1025 Z...DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A 20 NM SQUALL LINE FROM 27N84.5W ACROSS TAMPA BAY TO DAYTONA BEACH. MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY FLOW IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROVIDING A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR EARLY FEB. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SE THRU THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY SLOW OR STALL IN THE S GULF THIS WEEKEND AS IT BECOME DIFFUSE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE INCREASING THE NLY WINDS AND ADVECTING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. CARIBBEAN SEA... ABUNDANT VERY DRY AIR ALOFT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CAUSING THIS STABILITY IS HIGHLY CONFLUENT BETWEEN A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE EPAC WHICH EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE W CARIB AND A LARGE FLAT RIDGE CENTERED ABOVE THE EQUATORIAL ATLC. THE AIR IS SO STABLE ALOFT THAT THE WV ENHANCEMENTS ARE IN THE DRIEST RANGE ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SRN CARIB. BELOW THE STRONG CAP...TYPICAL SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW LIGHT QUICK MOVING SHOWERS. MODERATE TO STRONG SFC EASTERLIES ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIB WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS N OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. THESE WINDS DEVELOP A SLY COMPONENT IN THE W CARIB IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF. GFS SHOWS THE TRADES REMAINING MODERATE TO STRONG OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE UNIFORM ELY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE IN THE SE GULF/NW CARIB ON SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET AND COLD FRONT STREAKING ACROSS THE GULF HAS NOW SHIFTING INTO THE W ATLC N OF 29N W OF 72W. SWLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS OR SO AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. PLENTY OF DRY AND STABLE SINKING AIR EXISTS S AND E OF THE AREA OUTLINED OUT TO 47W UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS THE SAME RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIB WITH THE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 21N74W 32N68W. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ABOVE THE NRN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE BASE NEAR 26N42W. AN ASSOCIATED 1017 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 37N37W WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 26N47W CONTINUING AS A SFC TROUGH TO 22N52W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/MOIST DEEP SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG WITH SFC CONV IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO 34W. IN THE E ATLC...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 20W-34W AND AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING E OF 20W EXTENDING FAR S BEYOND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EXISTS BETWEEN A LARGE SCALE FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL ATLC AND THE SHARP DEEP TROUGH IN THE E ATLC. THIS PATTERN IS LEADING TO RATHER DRY STABLE CONDITIONS FROM 10N-20N SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ. $$ CANGIALOSI