000 AXNT20 KNHC 012358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU FEB 01 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 24W CONTINUING ALONG 2S30W 4S40W INTO NE BRAZIL. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER SW AFRICA AND NE BRAZIL WHERE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXIST. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 1.5N14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS/FRONTAL WAVES AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE SHOWS HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS AFFECTING THE NE GULF WATERS E OF 90W...N FLORIDA AND THE SE US. AT 21Z...A 1002 MB LOW IS NEAR 29N87W WHILE THE SECOND ONE IS NEAR 27N94W. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED IN BETWEEN THESE LOWS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE AS A COLD FRONT AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO LATER TONIGHT...AND FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRIDAY MORNING. SLY RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATES THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE E GULF WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTENED BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE GULF AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY WELL DEFINED LOW LEVELS CLOUD LINES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVING INTO THE SE GULF...UNDER THE SLY WIND FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW US. THIS TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY MOVE TO THE NE SUPPORTING THE LOWS/FRONT LOCATED OVER THE N GULF. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE EPAC INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF BY STRONG SWLY WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE EPAC INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. THE DRIEST AIR LIES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING ALSO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS ENHANCING STABILITY. POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC...PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN OVER THE ISLANDS. MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 25-30 KT THERE. WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIB ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 48W N OF 27N. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE E ATLC AND GOES FROM A LOW LOCATED JUST W OF PORTUGAL ALONG THE MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE S AND E OF THE TROUGH COVERING W AFRICA. DRY AIR IS FOUND ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A COUPLE OF TROUGHS...REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE ANALYZED OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC. ONE RUNS FROM 31N51W TO 27N72W. THE OTHER ONE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEWD TO 26N54W...THEN CONTINUES NEWD AS A COLD FRONT TO A 1011 MB LOW SITUATED NEAR 36N44W. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE AREA... WHICH IS AN EXTENSION OF THE SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT LIES OVER THE GULF AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. A 1024 MB SFC HIGH IS NEAR 35N67W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...CUBA AND THE SE GULF. ANOTHER RIDGE COVERS THE E-CENTRAL ATLC. $$ GR