000 AXNT20 KNHC 010541 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU FEB 01 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W SURGING S CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W THEN BECOMING MORE ZONAL ALONG 2S30W 3S40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF LIES ON THE N SIDE OF A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL E PAC. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION AS INDICATED ON WV IMAGES...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT THE SFC...A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N96W WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ALONG 29N92W 28N86W. SFC OBS AND AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS MAKE THE FRONT EASY TO FIND WITH WINDS VEERING FROM S-SE S OF THE FRONT TO STRONGER ENE WINDS N DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRES GRAD BETWEEN THE LOW/FRONT AND A PAIR OF 1023 MB HIGHS IN THE CAROLINAS. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE SHOWS MOST OF THE STRATIFORM OVERRUNNING PRECIP WELL INLAND...SOME OF IT IN THE FROZEN FORM. THERE ARE LIKELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE N GULF...ESPECIALLY N OF THE WARM FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE IN MEXICO AS LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL BANKED UP AGAINST THE TERRAIN. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE WEAK LOW/WARM FRONT WILL TRANSFORM INTO A COLD FRONT AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN U.S. DIGS SE. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE A VERY QUICK MOVER SLOWLY MOVING THRU REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT EXISTS EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING SINKING STABLE AIR. THE DRIEST AIR LIES ABOVE THE SE CARIB AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS ENHANCING STABILITY. IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOS...ELY TRADES ARE GENERATING AND DRIVING SOME PATCHES OF MOISTURE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. THESE PATCHES ARE VERY THIN IN THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIB BUT APPEAR A LITTLE THICKER AND MORE ORGANIZED IN THE NW CARIB WHERE THE FLOW DEVELOPS A SLY COMPONENT IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW/FRONT IN THE N GULF. SPEAKING OF THE TRADES...THE FLOW IS FAIRLY MODERATE THIS MORNING MAINLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL STRONGER WINDS N OF COLOMBIA. WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIB ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND STRENGTHENS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MAINLY N OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM NEWFOUNDLAND TO 25N58W. THIS SHORT WAVE IS PART OF A VERY LARGE POLAR UPPER LOW/TROUGH IN CANADA. MOIST STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW E OF THE SHORT WAVE AXIS IS PROVIDING ENERGY TO GENERATE A SWATH OF MOISTURE N OF 26N BETWEEN 45W-55W. S AND W OF THE AREA OUTLINED...DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE SW AND S CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIB. AT THE SFC...THERE ARE A PAIR OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. ONE IS ANALYZED FROM 32N61N TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE OTHER IS FURTHER E ALONG 30N56W 24N63W TOWARD THE N COAST OF HAITI. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY THE WRN ONE...THEY ARE SIGNIFICANT WITH QSCAT DATA SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CHANGE IN WIND DIR AND SPEED. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC IS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LARGE RIDGE COVERING THE REGION BETWEEN 30W-50W AND A SHARP DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MADEIRA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SWLY FLOW MENTIONED EARLIER...IS LOCKED INTO THE RIDGE N OF 27N. THIS MOISTURE DRIES OUT ON THE DOWNWARD BRANCH BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...NAMELY E OF 37W. $$ CANGIALOSI