000 AXNT20 KNHC 311116 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N6W 2N19W 1N32W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 40W-51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 5W-17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 5N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 22W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS MOVING NE ACROSS THE FAR SE US INTO W ATLC INCLUDING THE GULF N OF 24N WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINING INLAND OVER THE SE US DRAPING FROM E NORTH CAROLINA TO S ALABAMA. A 1016 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 23N95W TO MEXICO NEAR 20N97W AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW TO 28N86W. THE COLD AIR IS FILTERING S ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT S FASTER THAN OVER THE GULF. UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FAR E GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY S 25N E OF 88W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N AND W OF A LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR 28N83W ALONG 24N92W TO MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. THE SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO LOSE DEFINITION AS ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER E MEXICO THEN MOVE NE ALONG THE N GULF COAST LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. BROAD SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 130 EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE SE US AND GULF EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE E/CENTRAL US WILL E INTO THE NW ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM PANAMA/COAST RICA ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N70W NE INTO W AND CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS GIVING THE NW CARIBBEAN WESTERLY FLOW AND THE SE CARIBBEAN EASTERLY FLOW. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO E HONDURAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 63W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAIN RATHER CLEAR. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. VERY DRY MID/UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 40W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E CARIBBEAN NE ACROSS THE VIRGIN/ LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N45W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC W OF 76W. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SE US WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N73W SW TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WELL N OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO DRAPE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W SW TO 26N54W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 20N68W. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 25N FROM 40W-70W AND A BAND WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 28N70W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. THIS FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO BISECTING THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE ATLC FROM 35W-70W WITH A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 26N42W AND A WEAKENING 1022 MB HIGH SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 27N61W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N22W S THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 28N24W TO 13N27W. A WEAK 1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N29W WITH AN EQUALLY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 27N30W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER AFRICA AND OVER THE FAR E ATLC E OF 21W AND IS ADVECTING A LARGE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA GIVING THE EASTERN MOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ALL OF THE CANARY ISLANDS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. $$ WALLACE