000 AXNT20 KNHC 301759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 8N11W 3N20W 2N30W 1N35W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 38W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 60W...MOSTLY BETWEEN 10W AND 33W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS RATHER GENTLE AND GRADUAL...NOT A DEEP WOUND-UP AND WELL-DEVELOPED TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TRAVELS ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ABOUNDS WITH DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERING ONLY ABOUT HALF THE AREA WEST OF 90W. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AT THIS TIME STILL ABOUT 180 NM NORTHWEST OF THE TEXAS COAST. A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS NEAR 28N96W. A SURFACE TROUGH PARALLELS THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM OFF THE COAST...FROM THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 25N. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N97W 26N95W 29N93W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA NEAR 31N84W. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WITH COMPARATIVELY SMALLER AERIAL COVERAGE IS IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 21N70W TO NORTHERN HAITI TO 19N74W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN HAITI AND BELIZE/THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...COVERING JAMAICA. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE 30/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. TO 60W. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STARTS ALONG 60W FROM 20N TO 30N AND MOVES TOWARD THE BASE OF THE 32N28W 7N39W DEEP LAYER TROUGH. THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM 28N BEYOND 32N WEST OF 50W ARE OBSCURING THE POSITION OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHOSE BASE STILL APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 25N60W 21N70W TO HAITI. A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF A 120 TO 180 NM WIDE LINE OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS MARKS THIS COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N50W BEYOND 32N48W. A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N28W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 28N27W 25N28W 24N30W 15N30W 10N35W 7N39W. A 1021 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N28W. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 33N25W TO 30N26W TO 28N30W TO 26N36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WATER VAPOR LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITHIN 50 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N23W 16N25W 14N27W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N35W TO 30N40W 25N48W 22N54W TO 20N60W. $$ MT