000 AXNT20 KNHC 292354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 29 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N25W 2N40W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 21W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE AXIS ALONG 90W. A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM IS TRANSPORTING CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES IS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. AT 21Z...A 1026 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 29N90W. A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH/LOW IS OVER THE FAR WEST GULF AND RUNS FROM 28N96W TO 24N96W. COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST A SFC LOW TO FORM OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF ON TUESDAY. 10-15 KT NELY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR DEPICTED AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. CHILLY AIR CONTINUES TO BLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHILE CLEAR SKIES ARE SEEN OVER FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT LIES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG 21N75W 15N87W. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TOMORROW BUT SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. 15 KT NELY FLOW WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN ARE N OF THE FRONT. THIS CLOUDINESS IS AFFECTING BELIZE... GUATEMALA AND THE W PORTION OF HONDURAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BANKED ALONG THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF COSTA RICA AND SE NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH VERY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH S OF W CUBA AND EXTEND FROM 23N80W TO 21N90W BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TRADE WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST OFF OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N58W THEN EXTENDS SW ALONG 25N65W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY CONTINUING OVER E CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 25N. SWLY WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 360 NM E OF FRONT N OF 29N. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N68W 27N75 CROSSING THE NW BAHAMAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. ABUNDANT COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT MOVING SE OVER THE W ATLC. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR 36N25W TO 23N40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS MOST OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE W ATLC. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 32N45W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N27W SW TO 15N40W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER W AFRICA. $$ GR