000 AXNT20 KNHC 291813 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON JAN 29 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2N40W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 17W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 10-15 KT NELY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR DEPICTED AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 28N80W 25N90W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT MOVING S. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. THE W GULF OF MEXICO HAS PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT ELY SURFACE FLOW. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE BANKED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST W OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS W OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 90W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH S OF W CUBA BY TUESDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG 21N75W 15N87W. 15 KT NELY FLOW WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BANKED ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF 80W FROM 8N-12N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. WLY FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE SEA. EXPECT... THE FRONT TO STALL. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH S OF W CUBA AND EXTEND FROM 23N80W TO 21N90W BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL HAVE NORMAL TRADEWINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N69W 28N80W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT MOVING S. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO E CUBA ALONG 32N60W 25N70W 21N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF FRONT FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 56W-61W. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N40W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N26W 24N38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N37W. EXPECT THE THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N50W BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION N OF 27N AND E OF FRONT. $$ FORMOSA