000 AXNT20 KNHC 270005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... AXIS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING FROM A 1025 MB CENTER MOVING E THROUGH THE SE U.S. THE EXCEPTION IS THE LINGERING SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 19N92W 24N97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST DEEP LAYER CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE WRN GULF S OF 28N AND W OF 90W. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALSO SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. MUCH CLEARER SKIES...WITH VERY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IN PLACE...IS NOTICED NE OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO NEW ORLEANS. OVERALL UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL...WITH A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STRETCHING E THROUGH MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF WATERS FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN MEXICO AND 87W. MODELS STILL SUGGEST A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF DURING SAT...AND INTO THE NE GULF BY SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL...SEE THE GULF OFFSHORE WATER FORECAST UNDER HEADER MIAOFFNT4 FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS IS BECOMING STATIONARY. BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WITHIN 180NM NW OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE NE 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA PER USUAL. ALSO E OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED W THEN SW WITH THE LIGHT TRADES. VERY DRY MID TO UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO HOVER AROUND RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN. THE ONLY MID TO UPPER MOISTURE NOTED IN THIS EVENINGS WV IMAGERY IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ALSO JUST OFF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO SAT...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR NW CARIB BY LATE SUNDAY. MODERATE TRADES PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN WATERS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE SW N ATLC BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N52W AND CONTINUES SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH PREFRONTAL AND POSTFRONTAL WINDS IN THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA...SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER HEADER MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS IS WITHIN 180NM NW OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS NOTED ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A POWERFUL LOW SPINNING SE OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ASSOCIATED STRONG...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SPREAD SE THROUGH EXPOSED BEACHES IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK 1016MB SFC HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS NEAR 24N42W. UPPER PATTERN OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW FROM FLORIDA TO NEAR 65W. RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 65W AND 35W. E ATLC DOMINATED BY THE DEEP LAYER LOW ABOUT 400 NM WNW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED 1007 MB SFC LOW NEAR 30N26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE TO NEAR 25N21W BY TOMORROW EVENING...AND THEN WEAKEN STEADILY THROUGH SUN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 12W-25W...WHICH INCLUDES THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ WILLIS